1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil's Rice Planting Progress Advanced 10.6% Amid Weather Challenges

According to the National Supply Company (CONAB) Weekly Monitoring of Crop Conditions, Brazil's rice planting has progressed 10.6% of the total area in W40. In Rio Grande do Sul, the country's largest producer, planting advanced notably in the Western Border region, although rainfall caused interruptions in some areas. In Santa Catarina, planting progressed rapidly, with early-planted crops now in the germination and tillering stages. Meanwhile, in Maranhão, irrigated rice planting is nearing completion in critical regions such as Baixada Maranhense and Médio Mearim. In Pará, favorable light conditions have promoted vegetative growth, with some crops already beginning to flower. While weather challenges have affected planting in critical areas, there is optimism that the pace will accelerate as conditions improve.

Indonesia

Indonesia's Rice Import Policy Balances Price Stability and Farmer Welfare

According to the Secretary General of the Indonesian Farmers Association (HKTI), the government's rice import policy has effectively maintained food price stability and farmer welfare. The import strategy only risks driving inflation if executed during declining domestic production. The policy has successfully kept the price of rice at the farmer level above the Production Cost Price (HPP), ensuring that farmers remain profitable. Sadar also highlighted the role of the National Food Agency (BAPANAS) in protecting farmers' interests by regulating the HPP for unhusked rice based on actual production costs and reasonable profit margins.

Philippines

Philippines Anticipates Rice Price Drop by December Following India's Export Ban Lift

The Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) has announced that rice prices will decrease by Dec-24 due to India's decision to lift its export ban. Indian rice is projected to be more affordable than imports from Vietnam and Thailand, driving down global rice prices. Additionally, Executive Order No. 62, which reduces tariffs on imported rice by 15%, is expected to further lower rice prices. The DA also ensures efficient monitoring of agricultural products at ports, having released over 5,000 containers and working to clear nearly 300 containers still stuck at Manila South Harbor.

South Asia

India Lifts Non-Basmati Rice Export Ban After Abundant Harvest; Pakistan Removes Export Price Floor for All Varieties

On September 28, the Indian government lifted its ban on non-Basmati white rice exports, which had been in place for over a year due to abundant rice production in 2024 and high inventory levels. This move closely followed Pakistan's decision to remove the Minimum Export Price (MEP) policy for all rice varieties. Pakistan introduced the MEP in 2023, setting it at USD 1,300 per metric ton (mt) for Basmati rice and USD 550/mt for non-Basmati rice. The removal of the MEP in Pakistan seems to have been influenced by India's earlier removal of the USD 950/mt MEP on Basmati rice in Sep-24. India and Pakistan, the world's only producers of Basmati rice, imposed export restrictions amid rising global rice prices.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W40 2023 to W40 2024)

India

In W40, wholesale rice prices in India fell by 1.49% week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.66 per kilogram (kg). The price drop follows the Indian government's decision to resume non-basmati white rice exports, backed by increased production offering more affordable rice to buyers across Asia and Africa. In addition, the government has reduced the export duty on parboiled rice to 10%, buoyed by the arrival of a new crop and higher stock levels in state warehouses. However, despite the recent weekly decline, rice prices have risen 10% year-on-year (YoY) due to persistent food inflation in India, which has remained around 8% YoY since Nov-23.

Vietnam

In W40, wholesale prices for Vietnamese regular rice remained stable WoW and MoM at USD 0.62/kg, reflecting a 6.90% YoY increase compared to USD 0.58/kg in W40 2023. Vietnam's rice exports are projected to reach a record turnover of approximately USD 5 billion in 2024, driven by strong demand from key markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, the top destinations for Vietnamese rice. While certain rice varieties in the Mekong Delta have seen slight price declines, overall export prices have stayed steady. From Jan-24 to Aug-24, Vietnamese rice exports recorded a 5.8% YoY increase in volume and a substantial 21.7% YoY revenue growth, underscoring the region's rising demand.

United States

The wholesale price of United States (US) milled white long rice in Arkansas remained steady WoW at USD 0.79/kg in W40. However, it experienced a decline of 1.25% MoM and 3.66% YoY. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the rice harvest in Arkansas is progressing smoothly, with no significant weather disruptions or adverse crop conditions reported. By the end of Sep-24, over 25% of the state's rice crop had been harvested, with 76% rated as good or excellent. Early mill yield reports expected in the coming weeks will provide valuable insights into this year's crop performance.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Agricultural Research and Development

Brazil should enhance its agricultural research and development (R&D) initiatives by fostering collaboration between government agencies, universities, and agricultural research institutions. This collaborative approach can develop rice varieties resilient to climate variability, pests, and diseases, which is essential for ensuring stable yields. Brazil can optimize production under adverse weather conditions by investing in research for drought-resistant and disease-resistant strains. Improved agricultural practices, such as precision farming and integrated pest management, can further support farmers in maximizing yields and minimizing losses. This initiative would stabilize Brazil's domestic rice supply and position the country as a reliable exporter to markets in Africa, the Middle East, and South America, benefiting nations like Nigeria, Egypt, and Venezuela that rely on rice imports to meet their food demands.

Implement Comprehensive Monitoring Systems

The Philippines and Indonesia should invest in comprehensive monitoring systems that leverage real-time data collection and analysis of crop conditions, pricing trends, and market fluctuations. By employing advanced technologies like satellite imagery and drones, these countries can enhance their understanding of agricultural performance, allowing for timely and informed decision-making regarding import and export strategies. This proactive approach will help stabilize food prices and availability in domestic markets, preventing unexpected surges and ensuring consumers can access essential food supplies. Improved monitoring can also enhance export potential, particularly in neighboring Southeast Asian markets such as China, Malaysia, and Thailand, where predictable pricing and stable supply sources are increasingly sought, strengthening trade relations and regional food security.

Strengthen Export Strategies in India and Vietnam

India and Vietnam should strengthen their export strategies by diversifying target markets and building robust trade relationships through bilateral agreements and logistics improvements. This strategy can enhance the competitiveness of their rice exports, particularly as India lifts its ban on non-Basmati white rice, allowing it to serve better markets in Africa, such as Nigeria and Ghana, where demand for affordable rice is growing. Similarly, Vietnam's projected record turnover in rice exports places it in a favorable position to continue supplying critical markets like the Philippines and Indonesia. By implementing quality control measures and innovative marketing strategies emphasizing the sustainability and quality of their rice products, both countries can attract emerging markets in the Middle East, thereby expanding their global market share and meeting increasing food security needs.

Sources: The Print, Portal Do Agronegócio, Warta Ekonomi, WTOCenter