USDA raises global soybean production forecast but lowers 2024/25 canola harvest forecast

Published Dec 11, 2024

Tridge summary

The USDA has increased its global oilseed production forecast for FY 2024/25 by 1.16 million tons to 683.38 million tons, due to expected increases in soybean and cotton production. However, rapeseed production is expected to decrease by 1.06 million tons. The global rapeseed production forecast for Canada has also been reduced. The global sunflower production forecast has also been increased, particularly for the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The global final reserves estimate has been reduced. The markets are now looking forward to data on the harvest of canola in Australia and the forecast of the soybean harvest in South America.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In the December supply and demand report, USDA experts increased the forecast of world production of oilseeds in FY 2024/25 by 1.16 to 683.38 million tons (657.49 million tons in FY 2023/24), including soybeans by 1.74 million tons and cotton - by 0.5 million tons, which compensates for the decrease in rapeseed production by 1.06 million tons. Compared to the November estimates, the new soybean balance for the 2024/25 MR has undergone the following changes: Based on the report, January soybean futures in Chicago rose by 0.5% to $365.5/t (-2.2% compared to the data after the release of the November report). The forecast of global rapeseed production in 2024/25 MY was reduced by 1.06 to 86.18 (89.9) million tons, in particular for Canada – by 1.2 to 18.8 (18.85) million tons, while the Canadian Bureau statistics lowered the harvest estimate from 18.98 to 17.8 million tons. The export forecast for Ukraine was increased by 0.15 to 3.37 million tons and decreased for Canada by 0.6 to ...

Source: Graintrade